April 28, 2006

Is everything lost for 'J' ??

Every heart supporting Jayalalitha in this assembly election must have received a severe blow when some of the exit poll results were out in the news channels. Every poll suggested a clean sweep by the DMK led alliance much to the disappointment of many AIADMK fans. Strangely enough the massive political shift has taken place in less than 4 weeks time, when the pre-poll sureveys showed a clear advantage for the ruling government. What could be the possible reasons ?
The major calculation which went wrong for Jayalalitha was the timing of her campaign. She was almost on the last leg of her campaigning when the DMK was still preparing its election manifesto. As a result of which Mr. Karunanidhi, with his years of poilitcal experience introduced freebies, much to the delight of the common man, however, totally unfathomable from an economic perspective. Jayalalitha retaliated by making promises which were not a part of election manifesto. This led to massive shift in the electorate, who were now beginning to see a panicking J.
Every one feels that this will be Kalaignar's last election. This sympathy factor for Karunandhi created a huge electorate in his favor. The man in his own rights is one of the few great politicians which the state has ever seen.
No doubt in the Post-tsunami regime Jayalalitha was outstanding in her administration and directed the state onto the right track. Its because of her efforts that Tamil Nadu is among the top states in India with respect to Industrialisation, Manufacturing, Services and IT. Then what went wrong for her in this election ? Carefully examining, its the things falling in place for the DMK led alliance rather than things going wrong for Amma. The sudden shift of Vaiko to AIADMK was a blessing in disguise for DMK. The Vaiko factor was totally worthless for Jayalalitha. The agenda proposed by DMK was much more lucrative for the tamil public. The presence of powerful ally in the form of Congress has been a major plus as far as the DMK is concerned.
If the exit-poll results are indeed a picture to what is in store, then Tamil Nadu will witness its first coalition government in almost 50 years. The congress, after a long time, will have its presence felt in the state. Whether it is for the benefit of the people, one has to wait and watch. The Democratic Progressive Alliance will have to be on its toe. The DPA has promises which it has to fulfill. It will have a powerful and an aggresive leader of the opposition in the form of Jayalalitha, who would be more determined to come back to power in the next elections. Surely the battle is ON !

5 comments:

Doctor Bruno said...

You have forgotten two facts.....

1. Many people suffered under this rule when only a few benefitted...

2. There are two kinds of anti-incubency 1. Against the CM(or PM) and 2. Against your MLA (or MP) who never turned up after the result....

Then first anti incubency alone comes out in the opinion poll, where as the second one comes as a shock for the ruling party on the day of counting. It was for this reason, KK received a shock in 2001 and Vajpayee (and most of the India) in 2004.

Polls taken during March 15 showed a trend favouring JJ. How did the trend change by Apr 30. The reason is very simple. "Even though I am satisfied with CM, I do not want to vote for this MLA" is the popular opinion. This exactly is the reason why KK lost in 2001 and KK in 2006

Kaushik said...

yaa may be its the anti-incumbency trend in TN..but am still not 100% sure abt the exit polls..J can still shock ppl !

saran2sai (R.Saravanan) said...

ya. what dr.bruno's opinion is right partly. Though JJ has earned good name during her tenure, inspite of so many withdrawals of measures after her sitting MPs were trounced in 2004, two things - one: the anti incumbancy factor against the local sitting MLAs and two: the empty promises floated by MK like color tv etc., drawing parallel from the 2004 assembly elections of Andhra where congress spewed promises, have set back the expectations in favour of DMK. In fact what CHO told on the eve of polling day that this election will be in indicator of how much people believe in the promises, has come true.

Anonymous said...

True.
www.opinionbay.blogspot.com

Kaushik said...

well..it looks like TN is following kerala's footsteps..we have seen no govt. holding its rule in the last 4 assembly election even though thr has been a good overall development of the state..guess its anti-incumbency everytime..btw, any idea how this govt. would carry on the good work which J started?